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In less than a week’s time, the atmosphere over the eastern United States will shift gears from a weather pattern that favored out-of-season cold and snow to one that yields summerlike warmth and even the potential for early tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean — despite the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season being weeks away.The jet stream will flip from a strong southward dip more typical of January early this week to a strong northward bulge, which is more common during the mid- to late summer. AccuWeather meteorologists will be closely monitoring an area of disturbed weather that may evolve into a tropical system near the Bahamas late this week amid the summery pattern.

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The center of this tropical or semi-tropical feature and most of the rain are expected to stay east of the U.S. mainland, but there will be some impact from it reaching the beaches of the U.S. and perhaps more significant impact on the islands offshore. Showers and thunderstorms may occur over part of South Florida late this week.However, there is some indication that the broad area of showers and thunderstorms in this zone from Friday to Sunday could develop some spin and perhaps give birth to the first depression or even named tropical feature of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season.

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us weather

The first tropical system of the 2020 season will be named Arthur.I think we are going to be dealing with a non-tropical system that has the potential to transition into a subtropical or weak tropical system this weekend and early next week, AccuWeather’s top hurricane expert, said.The potential system will encounter some weather factors that typically favor tropical development and others that can often inhibit strengthening and organization of features.
“It appears this system, should it form, will likely be lopsided with a considerable amount of dry air on its westward side, closest to the U.S., and showers and thunderstorms on its eastern side, over the Bahamas,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist said.Such a configuration and atmospheric setup would suggest a subtropical system rather than a fully tropical system. This means the storm could contain both tropical and non-tropical characteristics. Tropical systems have warm, moist air surrounding the center while sub-tropical systems can have some warmth near the core but also have some cool air in the mix.

“This feature will have warmer-than-average waters working for it south of Bermuda, Meteorologist  said.

AccuWeather is projecting a very active hurricane season for the Atlantic due, in part, to above-normal water temperatures that are already being observed across parts of the basin, including from the Caribbean Sea to an area east of the Bahamas. Forecasters issued an update to the 2020 season prediction last week as indications are pointing toward a developing La Niña, which is a pattern that would decrease the episodes of disruptive wind shear, or winds that change in speed or direction in different levels of the atmosphere, across key development regions of the Atlantic Ocean.That won’t be the case with the system that meteorologists are monitoring in the western Atlantic. “Working against the feature will be wind shear,” Anderson said. Strong winds aloft will cause the system to lean in the vertical and limit its overall strength.

 

Reference-AccuWeather

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By JC