Less than a week after the western side of India was lashed by Cyclone Tauktae, another tropical system is brewing in the Indian Ocean, and AccuWeather forecasters warn it’s likely to bring another direct hit to the country.
On Saturday, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced an area of low pressure had begun to consolidate over the east-central Bay of Bengal.
Warm water temperatures and light wind shear over the northern Bay of Bengal can allow this tropical low to continue to strengthen through the rest of the weekend and into the beginning of next week.”This low is expected to strengthen into a depression by Sunday and then into a cyclonic storm by Monday as it tracks north and northwest over the Bay of Bengal,” stated AccuWeather Meteorologist.
The next tropical cyclone to develop in the northern Indian Ocean will be given the name Yaas by the IMD.The most likely location for landfall to occur is along the coast from northern Odisha in India to the far western coast of Bangladesh late in the day on Wednesday or Wednesday night.”At landfall, the cyclone could be a very severe cyclonic storm,” added Zartman. This is equivalent to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale used in the Atlantic and East Pacific basins.
As the tropical cyclone pushes inland across northeastern India, it can bring widespread rainfall totals of 2-4 inches (50-100 mm) to Indian states of northeastern Odisha, West Bengal and Bihar as well as portions of Nepal and Bangladesh.Along the track of the storm, rainfall totals can climb as high as 8-12 inches (200-300 mm) with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 24 inches (600 mm) most likely in this area.Flash flooding, mudslides and washouts are all possible with this amount of rainfall in such a short period of time.
In addition to flooding rain, areas along the coast of West Bengal and Bangladesh will also have to contend with storm surge as strong onshore winds arrive.Winds can gust as high as 80-100 mph (130-160 km/h) as the storm moves onshore. Strong wind gusts can lead to the damage of homes and buildings as well as power outages.
Depending on the exact track of the storm, Kolkata may be in the crosshairs of the strongest impacts from the storm. The city is India’s third largest with 14.1 million residents in the metropolitan area.After the storm moves inland and interacts with land, it will begin to lose wind intensity. By Friday, it is expected to transition into a tropical rainstorm before being ripped apart by the Himalayan Mountains in Nepal.Western India is still recovering from a direct hit from Tropical Cyclone Tauktae, which made landfall less than a week ago on the Kathiawar Peninsula of Gujarat.
reference – accuweather
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