Tropical System Forming in African
Weather forecasters believe the next probable long-track tropical system is forming off the African coast, less than a week after long-lived Larry raced across practically the whole Atlantic Ocean before dissipating near Greenland. Forecasters are keeping an eye on a number of tropical waves sweeping across the Atlantic, but one in particular has piqued their interest.
Early Tuesday, a tropical wave, which is essentially a disorganized area of low pressure, moved off the west coast of Africa and across the Atlantic. On Tuesday, this wave was spotted a few hundred miles south-southeast of the southern Cabo Verde Islands and was exhibiting symptoms of developing.
According to the Meteorologist, a huge area of showers and thunderstorms can be seen around this tropical wave.
The National Hurricane Center has labeled this tropical wave as Invest 95L, and it will move into a region that experts believe may be suitable for development. Low vertical wind shear and warm ocean waters are two atmospheric characteristics that tropical systems normally require to form and eventually strengthen.
Vertical wind shear is defined as a shift in wind direction and speed as the height of the atmosphere rises. When significant wind shear exists over a region of an ocean, development is slowed. Strong wind shear can split apart a tropical system’s cloud tops, preventing the storm from coming together and intensifying.
Warm ocean waters are also essential for tropical system development. Sea-surface temperatures of 78 degrees Fahrenheit or higher are typically the “sweet spot” for tropical development. Temperatures in the Atlantic region where the tropical storm is expected to hit are well into the 80s.
Weather Forecasters foresee new tropical development within the week, owing to moderate wind shear and relatively warm sea-surface temperatures along the path of the next probable tropical entity of the season.
“As it moves south of the Cabo Verde Islands, this system has a good potential of becoming a tropical depression, then a tropical storm, Meteorologist and Hurricane Experts said.
As the tropical wave advances westward across the open waters of the Atlantic, forecasters think the optimum opportunity for development will be before the end of the week.
“Conditions are expected to continue favorable through Thursday, and this feature could develop into a tropical storm by then,” Meteorologist added.
The final trajectory of this potential tropical storm is yet unknown. Overall, Weather forecasters believe two different track scenarios are in play.
In the first scenario, the potential storm may not be able to develop into much more than a weak tropical storm. In this situation, the lack of more strong growth will allow this system to drift westward. This westerly trajectory could send a tropical storm near to the Caribbean’s Leeward Islands early next week.
.If the possible system is able to fully exploit the favorable circumstances over the Atlantic, it has the potential to become the season’s next hurricane. If the storm reaches hurricane strength, it is less likely to follow a meandering westward path and is more likely to turn north.
reference – Accuweather
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