Atlantic Hurricanes Season and Tropical Strom
While Hurricane Sam continues to make its way across the Atlantic as a major hurricane, AccuWeather forecasters are keeping an eye on at least three more danger regions for tropical development this week. Following the creation of Subtropical Storm Teresa on Friday, only two names remain on the season’s list — and both names may be used shortly. It is only a matter of time before the season ranks third all-time in terms of the number of named storms generated in a single hurricane season.
At times, the 2021 season has been neck and neck with the record-breaking 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, which produced 30 named storms. However, the season is now trailing last year in terms of named storms. As of September 24 of last year, 23 named storms had formed.
2020 was tied for fourth place in terms of named tropical systems with the seasons of 1887, 1995, 2010, 2011, and 2012 as of Monday. Two more tropical storms would have to form this year to surpass the third most active season on record.
“Three systems have the potential to become tropical depressions and storms over the Atlantic basin this week,” Methodologist said, adding that only two of these are likely to be renamed from the 2021 list.
One of these candidates is located a few hundred miles east of the Atlantic coast of the United States. This system has a 50/50 chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm. “If it does become a tropical storm, it will almost certainly preserve the name Peter because this is the original circulation center from the previous tropical storm from earlier in September,” Metrologist explained.
Subtropical Storm Teresa formed late on Friday from a small portion of Peter’s residual moisture but not from the circulation center. “Teresa was given a distinct name because it did not emerge from the center of a previously identified tropical system,” metrologist explained. Teresa was named a subtropical storm because it had both tropical and non-tropical elements, despite the fact that the tropical portion of the system was minor.
Whether or whether Peter makes a comeback, the system will not endanger the land. Despite the fact that Bermuda is a few hundred miles to the northwest, the system is likely to remain weak and should avoid the islands.
Thousands of miles to the southeast of the potential “zombie” Peter system, and to the southeast of Hurricane Sam, meteorologists are keeping an eye on two tropical waves for further tropical development this week.
Both of these features, like tropical waves, have lately appeared off the coast of Africa, and both are in an environment that promotes continued strengthening of the systems in the coming days.
According to global weather forecasters, the waters in that part of the Atlantic Ocean are sufficiently warm (at or above 78 F) for tropical development, wind shear is currently minimal, and there isn’t a lot of dry air and dust in the area.
“However, because both systems are projected to encounter a wall of wind shear as they move over the Atlantic beginning this weekend,” metrologist added, “the organization and strengthening process may not endure very long.” Because of the expected limiting effects of wind shear this weekend and beyond, the systems may not become high-end hurricanes, may not become hurricanes at all, or may only be named for a short period of time.
The leading tropical wave (the disturbance closest to the central Atlantic) is expected to continue westward and might reach the Leeward Islands late this weekend or early next week if it survives the belt of wind shear.
The trailing tropical wave (the disturbance closest to Africa) has a better probability of looping northwestward and northward over the central Atlantic, where it would pose little threat to any land locations.
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