Atlantic Tropical Storm Could Develop In The Open Waters
The Atlantic continues to be a hive of activity. In addition to Tropical Storm Odette developing near the United States, Weather forecasters warn another system is likely to form in the coming days. Aside from that, they were also keeping an eye out for fresh dangers.
The National Hurricane Center has identified Invest 95L, a tropical wave lying about 1,100 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. It appeared to be very strong when it went off the coast of Africa a couple of days ago, with several heavy showers and thunderstorms, but there has been a significant component that may have prevented tropical development until Friday.
“The disturbance is moving quickly across the central Atlantic, which is probably why the system hasn’t developed a well-defined low-level circulation, Meteorologist said.
“All development, if any, will be slow to occur as long as 95L is moving so quickly,” Meteorologist said, adding that “it would likely only take a small reduction in forward speed to allow a better-defined circulation to develop at the surface, and it is expected that this system will slow down in the next couple of days.”
The system has a better than 50/50 probability of developing in the following days, according to Metrologist Weather analysts. Increased wind shear and drier air may begin to exert a stronger influence when 95L reaches the waters northeast of the Leeward Islands this weekend. “If there isn’t yet an organized tropical system, this might limit how strong 95L becomes or even stop development altogether,” explained.
Starting late this weekend, locally soaking showers and gusty thunderstorms could expand westward across the Leeward Islands, even if the system remains poorly organized.
Those with an interest in the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico should keep a close eye on this system, as it may travel close to or over the region early next week. The Caribbean’s little islands, especially those that aren’t large enough to produce their own thunderstorms, rely on weak tropical waves to offer much-needed rain and relief from the heat. Early next week, the system labeled 95L could provide just that, assuming it does not hit as a powerful tropical storm or hurricane.
A few hundred miles of track difference as it advances over the central and west-central Atlantic may determine if 95L will hit the US East Coast later next week as a designated system.
Later next week, a big southward dip in the jet stream could produce strong wind shear and westerly winds in general near the US East Coast. If this happens, and the system has moved far north of the Leeward Islands, it may be guided northward across the Atlantic. The system would not constitute a threat to the United States in this situation. If the system takes a more southerly path this weekend and into early next week, it could pass through the belt of westerly winds off the US East coast, drifting westward near the islands of the northern Caribbean, Florida, and possibly the Gulf of Mexico.
Meanwhile, the latest tropical wave was pushing offshore towards Africa’s coast on Thursday. This feature may be steered northward sooner rather than later by prevailing winds. Drier air will be a limiting factor, and recent signs suggest that it may have a greater impact on this wave than previously assumed,” Adkins said.
As a result, there’s a slim probability that this feature will grow during the next few days as it moves across the eastern Atlantic.
Despite the present tropical development in the Atlantic basin, because to areas of significant wind shear, fast organization has slowed in recent days compared to previous weeks.
“The prevailing atmospheric pattern throughout the Atlantic continues to be adverse for tropical system development.
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