Atlanticclimate -tropical development –Cyclone
Meteorologists predict one important ingredient for cyclonic activity to become a factor in the coming weeks, thus tropical forecasters are keeping a look out for potential development in the coming days.
Conditions were not auspicious to tropical formation during the final week of May and the first official week of the Atlantic hurricane season, which began on June 1, as moderate to strong wind shear prevailed over certain important locations.
However, this is the time of year when tropical forecasters focus on three main areas: the Gulf of Mexico, the southwestern Atlantic, and the Caribbean Sea, in search of “homebrew storms,” or cyclones that form close to the shores of the United States, Mexico, and Central America.
Wind shear is projected to lessen in the Gulf of Mexico, southwestern Atlantic, and Caribbean by the middle of this week.
The variation in direction or speed of breezes from near the sea surface to higher levels in the atmosphere is known as wind shear.Because wind shear prevents thunderstorms from forming in a region of low pressure, it tends to stifle tropical growth. A low-pressure system will not strengthen into a tropical system without thunderstorms.
Meteorologist stated continue to monitor the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean for potential development around the middle of June,
A storm system might form over the southern Gulf of Mexico or the Caribbean Sea later this week or this weekend.
“We still expect a gyre to form in or near Central America later this week and into next week,” Douty predicted.
According to Meteorologist, a gyre is a wide band of gently rotating air that moves counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere. A gyre can not cause high winds or severe weather on its own, but it can aid in the emergence of disturbances that might exacerbate these circumstances.
According to Douty, the establishment of this gyre, combined with a decrease in wind shear and an increase in tropical moisture, can lead to more widespread thunderstorm activity and lower atmospheric pressures.
Instead of a system developing on the Caribbean side, these showers and thunderstorms could form over the Pacific Ocean to the south of Mexico.
A second band of clouds and thunderstorms could form to the north of Puerto Rico by Thursday or Friday. By this weekend, the feature would have moved northward to the east of Bermuda. It is improbable that something will harm land if it develops.
Tropical Storm Ana formed early on the morning of May 22 close to the northeast of Bermuda, initially as a subtropical system before being upgraded to a hurricane. On the evening of May 23, the storm passed rapidly. Since then, there has been no tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean.
reference – accuweather
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