As residents who live in hurricane-prone areas of the United States and officials get ready for an intense Atlantic hurricane season and grapple with preparation and sheltering plans in the age of social distancing, the eastern and central Pacific will have a more normal to tranquil season in 2020. However, people who live in Mexico, Hawaii and other susceptible areas of the basin shouldn’t let their guard down and write the season off, AccuWeather forecasters warned as they released the 2020 Pacific hurricane season outlook this week.While the number of major hurricanes expected to develop in the Atlantic Ocean was recently raised from three to four storms to four to six, the East Pacific could spawn three to five Category 3 storms or stronger. A team of AccuWeather long-range meteorologists, headed by Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, forecast 13 to 16 named tropical storms in total to form in the East Pacific, five to eight of which could strengthen into hurricanes. Three direct impacts from either a sideswiping or landfalling tropical storm or hurricane are predicted in Mexico.
“Keep in mind that it takes only one powerful landfalling hurricane to cause considerable damage and potentially loss of life,” said Kottlowski, who has been predicting hurricane behavior for 43 years. “This is why even in less active seasons residents and interests along the Mexican coast and even Hawaii should still have a hurricane plan in place.”The players in the Pacific Basin won’t rely as heavily on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern, or the warm and cool phases of a recurring climate pattern across the Pacific, this season. Later during the summer, the current El Niño pattern may undergo a transition to a weak La Niña.
But since this climate pattern is expected to remain weak, this shift won’t be as influential as the water temperatures and wind shear, or winds that change with speed or direction with altitude. Strong wind shear can fan the top part of a hurricane or storm, which can unravel its circulation much like a top behaves
The Eastern Pacific Basin’s hurricane season starts earlier than its central counterpart and the Atlantic Basin, beginning on May 15 rather than on June 1. The season got a jump start about 20 days early this year when the Tropical Depression 1E formed well to the south and west of Mexico on April 25. This was the first time that a tropical depression was recorded during April in the East Pacific.
reference – accuweather
recent_climate
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