COP28
What is a COP?
COP, an acronym for the Conference of the Parties, signifies a significant global gathering comprising 198 parties, including the European Union. These parties have ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which was initially adopted in Brazil in 1992. Since 1995, COP meetings have taken place annually in various cities, with the exception of COP26 in Glasgow, which was postponed for a year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. These gatherings are numbered chronologically, and COP28 will be hosted by the United Arab Emirates, succeeding Egypt as the presidency.
COPs are not unique to climate change; they also exist for other UN conventions and treaties addressing concerns such as desertification and biodiversity.
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Outcomes and Challenges
The outcomes of COP meetings are the product of intricate, occasionally contentious negotiations among world leaders. These discussions culminate in a final text, which is often determined well beyond the official deadline. Alongside these negotiations, numerous lobbyists, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), international bodies, and other observers converge on the sidelines of the talks.
To reach an agreement, consensus must be achieved, necessitating the reconciliation of diverse positions and interests, all with the overarching goal of advancing the fight against climate change. Unfortunately, some COPs have yielded outcomes of little substance, which stands in stark contrast to the accelerating pace of climate change and its increasingly destructive repercussions.
COP15 in Copenhagen in 2009 was widely perceived as a failure, as it failed to produce a global deal, even with a last-minute text involving the world’s two largest economies, the United States and China. Nevertheless, other editions of COP meetings have achieved more favorable outcomes. COP21 in 2015, for instance, resulted in the historic Paris Agreement, ratified by 195 parties.
This accord marked the first time the international community rallied behind the objective of limiting global temperature increases to “well below” two degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels, and striving for 1.5 degrees Celsius if feasible. In a groundbreaking move, COP26 in 2021 identified fossil fuels as the primary cause of global warming, though the final text, under pressure from China and India, called for a “phasedown” of coal rather than a complete “phaseout.”
What to Anticipate at COP28
COP28 is set to host a record 80,000 participants, as reported by the Emirati presidency. The selection of Sultan Al Jaber, the head of the UAE’s national oil company ADNOC, as COP president, has stirred controversy among environmental advocates. Nevertheless, Jaber and others view this as an opportunity for a business leader from the fossil fuel industry to engage in discussions about the energy transition, which will be a pivotal topic of conversation.
The COP presidency has established concrete goals for 2030, including tripling global renewable energy capacity, doubling energy efficiency, and hydrogen production. Additionally, COP28 will feature the inaugural “global stocktake” to assess the world’s progress toward achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement.
A technical report released in September unsurprisingly concluded that the world is considerably off course in achieving these objectives, emphasizing the urgent need for action on all fronts. Financial considerations will once again take center stage, with affluent nations committing to financial support for developing nations to help them address and mitigate the impacts of climate change. COP27 established a historic “loss and damage” fund for vulnerable countries, but questions regarding its governance, location, and funding mechanisms remain unanswered.
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