Climate Change in Indonesia and Risks
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Climate Background in Indonesia
Indonesia’s climate zones and seasonal cycle for mean temperature and precipitation from 1991 to 2020. The Köppen-Geiger climate classification system divides climates into five major climate groups based on seasonal precipitation and temperature patterns. Climate zone classifications are derived from this system.
A (tropical), B (dry), C (temperate), D (continental), and E are the five major groups (polar). Except for those in the E group, all climates are assigned a seasonal precipitation sub-group (second letter). Hovering your mouse over the legend reveals the climate classifications. Following the visualisations is a narrative overview of Indonesia’s country context and climate.
Climate Change in Indonesia
The climate context for Indonesia for the current climatology, 1991-2020, is derived from observed, historical data. In order to appreciate future climate scenarios and projected change, information should be used to develop a strong understanding of current climate conditions. Data for the current climatology can be visualised using spatial variation, the seasonal cycle, or a time series. Both annual and seasonal data can be analysed. The data presentation defaults to national-scale aggregation; however, sub-national data aggregations can be accessed by clicking on a sub-national unit within a country.
Climate variability refers to how climate conditions (such as temperature and precipitation) “flicker” from year to year within their respective “range of variability.” The cause of this natural variability could be due to the coupled atmosphere-ocean-land-ice system’s quasi-random internal variability (as weather variability is drawn out over many years). El Nio-Southern Oscillation variability is a prime example of a cause in this category.
Other causes include the influence of non-human nature’s periodic “forcing” events, such as explosive volcanic eruptions. These natural factors (both internal and external forcing) are summed up as “internal climate variability.” This internal climate variability is always present, sometimes more pronounced, sometimes less so.
As a result, climatology must be understood as a mean with variability around it. Variability can be very high from year to year (high latitudes), or it can be very low in a few locations and for specific variables (i.e., temperatures in the tropics).
In contrast to natural variability, anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and changes in atmospheric concentrations (i.e., CO2, methane) combined with land surface changes and aerosol impose a different forcing on the climate system. The search for climate change signals attempts to distinguish their effects from natural background variability. This signal can manifest itself as changes in the magnitude of the variability as well as a systematic trend over time.
three themes in which to investigate and comprehend differences in variability, trends, and the significance of change over the last 70, 50, and 30 years. It is intended to supplement the views on the climatology pages with information (Current Climatology- Climatology tab). The three sections present various aspects of how variability may need to be considered.
The variables presented are only a subset of the full indicator catalogue for ease of navigation. The data on this page is derived from the ERA5 reanalysis (at 0.5o x 0.5o resolution) in order to extract daily variability.
Climate Change Trending in Indonesia
Climate variability refers to how climate conditions (such as temperature and precipitation) “flicker” from year to year within their respective “range of variability.” The cause of this natural variability could be due to the coupled atmosphere-ocean-land-ice system’s quasi-random internal variability (as weather variability is drawn out over many years). El Nio-Southern Oscillation variability is a prime example of a cause in this category.
Other causes include the influence of non-human nature’s periodic “forcing” events, such as explosive volcanic eruptions. These natural factors (both internal and external forcing) are summed up as “internal climate variability.” This internal climate variability is always present, sometimes more pronounced, sometimes less so.
As a result, climatology must be understood as a mean with variability around it. Variability can be very high from year to year (high latitudes), or it can be very low in a few locations and for specific variables (i.e., temperatures in the tropics).
In contrast to natural variability, anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and changes in atmospheric concentrations (i.e., CO2, methane) combined with land surface changes and aerosol impose a different forcing on the climate system. The search for climate change signals attempts to distinguish their effects from natural background variability. This signal can manifest itself as changes in the magnitude of the variability as well as a systematic trend over time.
When (year of significant change) a changing climate departs from historical natural variability bounds, hange in relation to evolving trends provides insight. In contrast to the emergence of a (anthropogenically) forced trend, a period dominated by natural variability (low trend) can be seen.
This page is intended to supplement the views on the climatology pages with additional information (Climate Projections – Mean Projections). The three sections present various aspects of how variability may need to be considered. The variables presented are only a subset of the full indicator catalogue for ease of navigation. This page’s data is derived from CMIP6 (shown here at 1o x 1o resolution) in order to extract daily variability.
See the discussion on how to interpret data presentations embedded in each visual.
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Climate Change in Indonesia and Risks
The eastern and western parts of Indonesia’s most populous island, Java, as well as the coastal regions of Sumatra, parts of western and northern Sulawesi, and southeastern Papua islands, are all highly vulnerable to a variety of climate hazards, including drought, floods, landslides, and sea level rise—but not cyclones.
According to a World Bank global risk analysis, Indonesia ranks 12th out of 35 countries with a relatively high mortality risk from multiple hazards. A recent vulnerability mapping exercise for South East Asia identified the western and eastern parts of the island of Java as hotspots for the impacts of multiple hazards.
Earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, floods, landslides, droughts, and forest fires are examples of geological or hydro-meteorological hazards. An estimated 40% of the country’s population is at risk.
This section provides a summary of major natural hazards and their socioeconomic consequences in a given country. Furthermore, it enables rapid assessment of the most vulnerable areas by spatially comparing natural hazard data with development data, identifying vulnerable livelihoods and natural systems.
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