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The study does not take into consideration the concurrent increase in man-made sources of air pollution, which has previously been projected by earlier studies.
“We’re not looking at human emissions of air pollution because we can control what we produce,” said James Gomez, a PhD student at UCR and the study’s primary author. “We have the option of switching to electric vehicles. Nevertheless, this may not affect air pollution caused by plants or dust.”
Details of the future air quality damage caused by these natural sources have recently been published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment. Plants are expected to contribute almost two-thirds of future pollution.
All plants create molecules known as biogenic volatile organic compounds, or BVOCs. “The scent of a freshly mowed grass, or the sweetness of a ripe strawberry, those are BVOCs,” says one expert. They are continually emitted by plants.
BVOCs are harmless on their own. They do, however, form organic aerosols when they react with oxygen. These aerosols can cause newborn mortality and childhood asthma, as well as heart disease and lung cancer in adults, when breathed.
Plants increase BVOC production for two reasons: increased atmospheric carbon dioxide and increased temperatures. Each of these elements are expected to rise further.
To be clear, cultivating plants benefits the ecosystem. They assist to regulate global warming by reducing the quantity of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. People will not be harmed by BVOCs emitted by tiny gardens.
“For example, your grass will not create enough BVOCs to make you sick,” Gomez noted. “It’s the large-scale rise in carbon dioxide that contributes to the biosphere producing more BVOCs and organic aerosols.”
Dust from the Saharan desert is expected to be the second-largest contributor to future air pollution. “In our simulations, an increase in winds is anticipated to lift more dust into the atmosphere,” said Robert Allen, co-author of the research and associate professor of Earth and Planetary Sciences at UCR.
As the climate warms, more Saharan dust will be swept throughout the world, with greater levels of dust in Africa, the eastern United States, and the Caribbean. Dust across Northern Africa, especially the Sahel and Sahara, is expected to grow as West African monsoons become more strong.
Organic aerosols and dust, as well as sea salt, black carbon, and sulfate, are classified as PM2.5 airborne pollutants because they have a diameter of 2.5 micrometers or less. In this study, the rise in naturally derived PM2.5 pollution rose in direct proportion to CO2 levels.
“The more CO2 we emit, the more PM2.5 we observe in the atmosphere, and the contrary is equally true. The more we cut, the better the air quality becomes “Gomez stated.
For example, if the temperature rises by merely 2 degrees Celsius, the study discovered only a 7% increase in PM2.5. Because the study is focused on human health implications, all of these findings only apply to changes in air quality over land.
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