Hurricane Norma to Slam Mexico
The formidable Hurricane Norma, after experiencing rapid intensification, is poised to make landfall in Mexico. Additionally, it may contribute to the onset of heavy rain in the drought-stricken central United States.
Hurricane Norma’s swift intensification, transforming it into a major hurricane over the East Pacific between Wednesday and Thursday, closely aligns with AccuWeather meteorologists‘ precise predictions. While there’s potential for further strengthening before a decrease in wind intensity, US forecasters are issuing warnings regarding the potential for life-threatening conditions as this powerful hurricane approaches Mexico. Notably, there’s concern that some of Norma’s moisture could trigger a deluge in parts of the drought-afflicted central United States in the upcoming week.
As of Thursday midday, this Category 4 hurricane displayed maximum sustained winds of 130 mph, swirling several miles south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, situated at the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula in Mexico. Norma is inching its way northward at a pace of 7 mph.
It’s anticipated that Norma, unlike the previous tropical system that struck Mexico a few weeks ago, Major Hurricane Lidia, which made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane just south of Puerto Vallarta on October 10, 2023, with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph, will not reach Mexico as a major hurricane. Instead, Norma is predicted to begin losing wind intensity late this week and during the weekend as it encounters cooler waters, as suggested by US Tropical Meteorologists.
In the short term, the path and intensity of Norma are relatively predictable, guided by steering winds directing it on a general north-to-northwest trajectory through the weekend. By Sunday or possibly as early as Saturday night, the hurricane is expected to approach the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula in Mexico.
However, Norma’s trajectory over the weekend and into the following week becomes more complex and is influenced by non-tropical meteorological factors, especially the position of the jet stream over the western United States.
The behavior of the jet stream over the western United States this weekend and in the upcoming week is of paramount importance and will significantly impact the path and fate of Norma. If the jet stream dips far enough south, it is likely to influence Norma’s trajectory, flinging it swiftly northeastward into the interior Southwest and southern Plains of the United States. In contrast, a shallower jet stream dip may result in Norma lingering near the coast of Mexico for most of the next week, gradually diminishing over cooler, churned-up waters.
This situation is dynamic and dependent on the behavior of the jet stream, and meteorologists are closely monitoring these developments to determine Norma’s next move.
The shifting jet stream in the western United States will also bring about a notable change in the regional weather pattern, with much cooler air replacing the searing record heat that has been affecting the Southwest. There is even the potential for the first wind-blown snow event in parts of the northern Rockies and High Plains.
Even if Norma eventually moves northeast across northern Mexico and into the United States next week, much of the tropical system’s moisture is expected to be extracted over the coastal areas, either as a tropical storm or hurricane, or over the interior mountains of northern Mexico, manifesting as a tropical rainstorm.
Meteorologists have assigned a “2” rating to Hurricane Norma on the Forecasting RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes, a scale ranging from “less than one” to 1 to 5, reflecting the expected impact on Mexico.
Anticipating heavy rainfall, which could result in life-threatening flash flooding, mudslides, and washouts, US forecasters are vigilantly monitoring the situation. These concerns remain even as the hurricane is projected to lose wind intensity before reaching the southern Baja Peninsula and the west-central coast of mainland Mexico.
The major hurricane is expected to generate powerful winds that will churn up massive seas in the region. These waves are expected to persist even as the hurricane weakens. Consequently, beachgoers, as well as fishing and cruise interests, are urged to heed all warnings, as conditions are expected to become perilous. Large waves could inundate coastal areas, causing flooding and other damage, and sudden large waves might pose risks to onlookers.
Irrespective of Norma’s path, some rain is anticipated in parts of the South Central United States next week.
US Meteorologists anticipate that there will be a sufficient dip in the jet stream to draw moisture from the Gulf of Mexico northward. However, the extent of this dynamic will hinge on the intensity of the jet stream dip and whether Norma’s moisture and energy become contributing factors.
The prospect of rainfall is a welcome development for the Central states, which have been grappling with persistent and extensive drought conditions. The drought’s severity has reached a point where it has resulted in record-low levels on the Mississippi River, leading to significant reductions in the transportation of goods along the waterway and the intrusion of saltwater into the drinking supply in southern Louisiana.
Given that the anticipated rainfall is likely to be spread out over an extended period, even in cases where more than 4 inches of rainfall occur, the parched ground tends to absorb the water rather than immediately filling streams and larger rivers.
However, there may be localized areas where intense rainfall occurs rapidly, running off swiftly due to compacted soil or rocky terrain. The potential for flash flooding is most pronounced in regions of Texas, Oklahoma, and potentially New Mexico if the swath of rain extends further to the west.
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