understanding risk
understanding risk

DRR aim to achieve the objective of reducing risk. Awareness, identification, understanding and measurement of disaster risks are all clearly fundamental underpinnings of disaster risk management (UNISDR, 2015b). Disaster risk reduction is about decisions and choices, including a lack of, so risk information has a role in five key areas of decision making.
Risk identification
Because the damages and losses caused by historical disasters are often not widely known, and because the potential damages and losses that could arise from future disasters (including infrequent but high-impact events) may not be known at all, DRM is given a low priority. Appropriate communication of robust risk information at the right time can raise awareness and trigger action.
Risk reduction
Hazard and risk information may be used to inform a broad range of activities to reduce risk, from improving building codes and designing risk reduction measures (such as flood and storm surge protection), to carrying out macro-level assessments of the risks to different types of buildings (for prioritizing investment in reconstruction and retrofitting, for example).

understanding risk
Preparedness
An understanding of the geographic area affected, along with the intensity and frequency of different hazard events, is critical for planning evacuation routes, creating shelters, and running preparedness drills. Providing a measure of the impact of different hazard events—potential number of damaged buildings, fatalities and injuries, secondary hazards—makes it possible to establish detailed and realistic plans for better response to disasters, which can ultimately reduce the severity of adverse natural events.
Financial protection
Disaster risk analysis was born out of the financial and insurance sector’s need to quantify the risk of comparatively rare high-impact natural hazard events. As governments increasingly seek to manage their sovereign financial risk or support programs that manage individual financial risks (e.g., micro-insurance or household earthquake insurance).
Resilient reconstruction
Risk assessment can play a critical role in impact modelling before an event strikes (in the days leading up to a cyclone, for example), or it can provide initial and rapid estimates of human, physical, and economic loss in an event’s immediate aftermath. Moreover, risk information for resilient reconstruction needs to be available before an event occurs, since after the event there is rarely time to collect the information needed to inform resilient design and land-use plans.
If those exposed to hazards are unaware of the risks they face, it is difficult to see how or why households, businesses or governments would invest in reducing their risk levels. However, while risk awareness may be a precondition, the importance people attach to managing their risks can only be understood in the context of the full range of social, economic, territorial and environmental constraints and opportunities they face (UNISDR, 2015a) – see the story of Ratnapura and the Chao Phraya River below.

We have over 30 years of research into disaster risk, but much of this is not available in a form that is understandable or useful to those who need it the most. There is therefore a need for risk scientists and researchers to shift their focus to the production of risk information that is understandable and actionable for different kinds of users: in other words, risk knowledge (CDKN, 2014; GFDRR, 2014a in UNISDR, 2015a,b). Such a shift requires more collaboration and partnerships between scientists and researchers and those involved in DRR, ranging from governments to local communities.

Governments need to invest in the collection, management and dissemination of risk information, including disaster loss and impact statistics, hazard models, exposure databases and vulnerability information. At the same time, they need to put standards and mechanisms in place to ensure openness and transparency so that users not only have access to the information they need but are aware of its underlying assumptions and limitations (UNISDR, 2015a). The generation of understandable and actionable risk information needs to be particularly sensitive to extensive risk, which, because it is configured to a large extent by social, economic and environmental vulnerability, can be reduced effectively through risk management and sustainable development practices (UNISDR, 2015b).

 

reference-

Preventionweb

 

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By JC