While a tropical low in the Bay of Bengal has been slow to develop, it is still expected to strengthen in the coming days.The low, which has churned at a glacial pace near the Andaman and Nicobar Islands since last week, brought some locations, including Banda Aceh, a total of 11.89 inches of rain (302 mm) in just a few days last week.As this system drifts northwest, away from the Andaman and Nicobar Islands in the coming days, a more noticeable change will be underway.
“There is now a fairly well-defined low circulation around the tropical low in the Bay of Bengal, showing it is slowly starting to strengthen,” said AccuWeather Lead International Meteorologist Jason Nicholls.Traveling through the warm waters of the Bay of Bengal, providing one of the key ingredients of tropical development, will help the system to strengthen further in the coming days.For a while, an area of low wind shear will add to the strengthening of the low. However, the storms strength will not go into next week unchecked.”As the system moves farther to the north, wind shear will increase across the central and northern Bay of Bengal, which should limit how intense the system can get,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.
AccuWeather meteorologists anticipate that strengthening will be very slow, and a depression is unlikely to form until the weekend, or even early next week.There are still a few variations in how long it could take the tropical low to make its way northward closer to the Banladesh coastline.
The tropical low may wobble westward, allowing for a few showers to linger off the coast of Sri Lanka and southeastern Indian cities like Chennai. Or the system may bolt northward more quickly before stalling, bringing outer rainbands to parts of Myanmar.Either way, a landfall of an organized tropical system is possible near the norther part of the Bay of Bengal early to the middle of next week.
Due to some uncertainties, locations from east-central India to Myanmar should all be prepared for impacts from this tropical system, especially given the global COVID-19 pandemic.