An area of low pressure which formed west of the Philippines will have a window of opportunity for further development before reaching southeast China later this week.
Warm ocean water and low wind shear will allow for gradual strengthening as it moves west-northwestward into the middle of the week. However, the length of time for strengthening over water will be limited to only 36-48 hours before interaction with land begins.
Should this system strengthen into a tropical storm, it will be given the name Wipha.Regardless of strength, impacts to southeast China can begin as early as Tuesday night as the potential tropical storm becomes better organized across the South China Sea.
Locations from southeast China into northern Indochina will want to be on alert for potential tropical impacts from middle to late week as the storm approaches.
Locations from Hainan Island to the Leizhou Peninsula may take a direct hit from this storm with a second landfall possible in Guangxi or northern Vietnam.Heavy rainfall will be the most widespread concern with this tropical threat as downpours can lead to flash flooding and mudslides. Total rainfall of 100-200 mm (4-8 inches) is expected across the region with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 380 mm (15 inches).
Rough seas will also be stirred and create dangers for boaters and swimmers across the South China Sea from the Philippines to China.
The extent of wind damage will depend on the storm’s track and peak intensity; however, at this time the threat for damaging winds extends from Hainan Island to southwest Guangdong, the coast of Guangxi and coastal locations of northeast Vietnam.
The worst impacts from this storm are likely to bypass Hong Kong to the south and west. Regardless, rain bands from this storm can impact the city from Wednesday into Friday.
Brief periods of intense rainfall and gusty winds are expected, resulting in localized flooding and travel delays at times.
For anyone in the path of this developing tropical threat, the time to prepare for this storm is right now.
Heed all advice from local government officials and evacuate if asked. Keep gas tanks filled and cell phones charged.
Despite the storm tracking away from the Philippines, bands of rain will batter western areas of Luzon, including Manila, into this weekend. Localized flooding and travel disruptions are possible each day.
Additional tropical development will be possible across the West Pacific during the first half of August.
reference-
accu weather