Forecasters are focused on a brewing tropical system in the East Pacific, and depending on the path the system takes, it could be one for the record books.The first tropical system of the 2020 East Pacific hurricane season developed back in late April, when Tropical Depression One-E formed well west of Mexico. This depression remained over water and did not make any impact to land.
The next tropical system in the East Pacific will be a different story.Approximately 400 km (250 miles) southwest of southern Guatemala, a tropical low formed early in the week near what meteorologists call a gyre, or a large area of disturbed weather. This low has become stronger and more organized in the past several days.Through the middle of the week, the center of this low is expected to linger offshore, before slowly creeping closer to the Guatemala coast late in the week.”As this low continues to churn over the warm waters off the coast of Central America, it will have the chance to intensify into a tropical depression or even tropical storm by Friday or Saturday, Lead Tropical Meteorologist.
Should the system reach tropical storm strength, it would be given the name Amanda.However, the closer the system gets to the coast, the better chance that the mountainous terrain of Central America shreds the storm and limits how strong it can become.Whether it intensifies or not, the combination of the tropical moisture already pushing through the region and the tropical low will bring rounds of heavy rain from the Panama-Costa Rica border to Guatemala through into the weekend.Downpours may also reach as far west as southern Mexico as the system drifts closer to land.
Any downpour is likely to be heavy and could produce 50 mm (2 inches) of rainfall in just a few hours. Areas that receive days of this much rain are likely to experience flash flooding and, in the mountainous terrain, mudslides.At this time, forecasters say the low should meander northward towards Guatemala, remaining mostly parallel to the country’s shores. After that, the exact path of the storm is somewhat uncertain. The low could stall and drift westward this weekend, or, depending on how close the low gets the coast, wobble northeast and make landfall in the region.In anticipation of the approaching tropical low, the President of El Salvador issued a “Yellow Alert” for possible tropical depression.”If the system were to make landfall in Central America, anywhere from Costa Rica to Guatamala, it would be quite rare, said.While tropical systems often track near Central America, or even make landfall along the coast with the Caribbean Sea, a landfalling Pacific system is much less common, only occurring twice in the last 10 years.
reference – Accuweather