AccuWeather meteorologists continue to monitor a slow-moving tropical low for development over the Bay of Bengal, and depending on the track it takes, the tropical system could bring impacts to areas from southern India to Bangladesh this week.
Although development is not expected early this week, this low is expected to bring periods of tropical downpours that can increase the risk of flash flooding and mudslides to the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.Northern Sumatra also received heavy rainfall late last week, and Banda Aceh totaled 11.89 inches (302 mm) from Thursday to Sunday.This system is expected to drift west-northwest, away from the Andaman and Nicobar Islands by midweek.As the low drifts over the southern Bay of Bengal early this week, it will be over warm water and in an area of low wind shear. These are two crucial ingredients needed for tropical development.
“Strengthening of this low will likely be very slow and is expected to hold off until late this week or the weekend,” said AccuWeather Lead International Forecaster Jason Nicholls.meteorologists are leaning toward the possibility of the low becoming a depression over the Bay of Bengal, but the exact track remains unclear,” Nicholls said.
The track of the system after it passes the Andaman and Nicobar islands will help to determine how much it is able to strengthen.”The two most likely scenarios consist of the system tracking to the west towards southern India or curving to the north toward northeastern India and Bangladesh,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.
A turn to the north will give the low more time over water and allow further strengthening, possibly into a deep depression and a cyclonic storm. However, strengthening of the system will not go unchecked.
reference – AccuWeather
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