The Philippines is on alert this week as Tropical Storm Ambo threatens the region with downpours and gusty winds.AccuWeather forecasters have been monitoring a tropical low over the southern Philippine Sea that brought heavy rain and thunderstorms to Palau over the weekend.
Late in the day on Sunday, the low developed into a tropical depression and was given the name Ambo by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration. On Tuesday night, local time, the system was upgraded to a tropical storm.The Japan Meteorological Agency is also monitoring the storm, and is referring to it as Vongfong.Now with sustained winds of 65 km/h (40 mph), Ambo is equivalent to a tropical storm in the Atlantic and East Pacific basins.
Through the middle of the week, Ambo is also expected to be far enough offshore to keep the heaviest rain east of the southern Philippines. Still, a few occasional outer bands will bring some waves of showers.
AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist expects Ambo to strengthen further, while it remains over the warm water of the Philippine Sea and in an area of low wind shear, an environment conducive for strengthening.The increased strength and slow, westward movement will begin to spread Ambo’s heavy, tropical rainfall and thunderstorms across the eastern islands.Heavy tropical downpours throughout the second half of the week can increase the risk of flooding and mudslides across the area.The heaviest rain is likely to follow the center of the storm and extend just to the east, as moisture is pulled in from the warm Philippine Sea. It is in this region that the AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 300 mm (12 inches) is most likely.
The exact location of the heaviest rainfall will be dependent on the track that Ambo takes late Thursday through the weekend. The track will be influenced by a non-tropical system moving across Japan at the same time.Should the storm in Japan get strong enough and close enough to the tropical storm, it may help to pull Ambo to the north and then northeast into the weekend. This will limit heavy rainfall and gusty winds to eastern locations of the northern Philippines, with the worst effects missing Manila.
However, should the storm moving through Japan remain weak or stay far enough away from Ambo, the tropical system’s northward turn would be delayed. In this scenario, the heaviest rain may push right across southern Luzon and Manila and Ambo might even briefly reemerge over water in the South China Sea.
reference -AccuWeather
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