Growing Tropical Risk
A growing area of showers and thunderstorms in the central Atlantic might turn into a tropical depression or storm as it moves toward the Caribbean next week. Other areas are being closely watched too.
The Caribbean is where tropical development is most likely during the first week of September. This is where a large area of showers and thunderstorms has been observed since mid-August.
Other regions being monitored include the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, waters just off the U.S. Atlantic coast, and an area near the coast of Africa. The south-central Atlantic has multiple groups of showers and thunderstorms stretching nearly 1,000 miles.
Recently, the risk of tropical development in the Caribbean area has been increased to a medium level.
Experts predict that at least one system will develop within this moist area in the coming days. In this region, the winds are calm, and the water is warm, making it a good environment for tropical development.
Wind shear refers to winds in the atmosphere that blow in one direction or suddenly change direction. When wind shear is strong, it can prevent tropical systems from forming.
For a tropical depression to be officially recognized, there must be a complete circulation with maximum sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Usually, showers and thunderstorms gather near the center of circulation on satellite images when a tropical depression is forming.
Recently, there were up to five clusters of thunderstorms within the moist area, but none showed any signs of circulation.
Even if the system does not organize into a tropical storm, heavy showers and gusty thunderstorms will likely move westward across parts of the Leeward and Windward islands in the Caribbean. The heaviest rainfall is expected over the Windward Islands. While the rain will be beneficial, it could also cause flash flooding in some areas. Several inches of rain may fall from this weekend into early next week.
Some areas in the Windward Islands are still recovering from damage caused by a previous hurricane earlier this summer.
That hurricane brought severe winds, heavy rain, and storm surge to the Windward Islands. It was the strongest hurricane on record for July and caused significant damage and loss of life.
As this new weather system moves into the Caribbean next week, the chances of it developing into a named tropical storm are expected to increase. The next name on the list for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is Francine.
After moving through the Caribbean, the storm might continue westward into Central America or Mexico. Another possibility is that the storm could be pulled into the Gulf of Mexico, which could pose a direct threat to the U.S. It’s also possible that more than one system could develop within the broad area of showers and thunderstorms.
There is another area in the Atlantic being watched for tropical development. A batch of thunderstorms is expected to move off the coast of Africa later next week, and a tropical storm may form in the middle of the ocean. Winds would likely keep this storm away from land.
Closer to the U.S., two other areas are being monitored over the next few days. One area is in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. It could bring heavy rain, possible flooding, and gusty winds to parts of Texas and Louisiana, but it has a low chance of becoming a tropical depression.
Another area just off the U.S. Atlantic coast will be closely watched for development later next week.
The following names after Francine for 2024 are Gordon, Helene, and Isaac. The current hurricane season is expected to be very active, with several storms possibly intensifying rapidly.
In a recent update, experts now predict 20-23 named storms for 2024, which is slightly fewer than originally expected. This change is due to a recent lull in storm activity, even though this time of year is usually very busy.
While it’s unusual not to have an active storm during Labor Day weekend, conditions in the Atlantic can change quickly. More active periods with multiple named storms are still expected, possibly within the next week to 10 days.
Recent Climate – Growing Tropical Risk, Growing Tropical Risk: Multiple Atlantic Systems Could Develop